Annie Soyean Lee

I am an Assistant Professor of International Economics at Johns Hopkins University, SAIS. I received my Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in May 2022.

I will be on a sabbatical leave in Fall 2026.

My research interests lie in the determinants of the currency composition of assets and liabilities for governments, private agents, and the aggregate economy. I specifically focus on the role of exchange rate risk in currency choice and the macroeconomic implications of such choices.

I co-organized Johns Hopkins University SAIS-KSAS-Carey Geoeconomics Conference on May 2-3, 2025 (2026 ver on April 17-18, 2026), and the 2025 Washington Area International Finance Symposium conference on September 26th, 2025.

Primary Research Fields: International Finance and Macroeconomics

Contact Information:

Email: annie.lee.econ [at] gmail.com
JHU Contact: 558Q, 555 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001 (annie.lee [at] jhu.edu)

Curriculum Vitae: CV

Legal Name: Soyean Lee (이소연)

Publications & Forthcoming Papers

Carry Trades and FX Risk Buffers: Foreign Currency Debt of Emerging Market Firms (with Steve Pak Yeung Wu)

Accepted at Review of Economics and Statistics

[publisher link] [working paper version] [media coverage: VoxDev] [online appendix]

Abstract: The surge in foreign currency (FC) corporate debt in emerging economies has sparked concerns about macroeconomic stability, heightened by speculation about non-financial firms engaging in carry trades. Using firm-level data on the currency denomination of both assets and liabilities, we find evidence of firms’ carry trades: firms save in local currency liquid assets and earn higher interest income after issuing short-term FC debt. They also set aside FC liquid assets as FX risk buffers. A large degree of heterogeneity in incentives is observed. Notably, listed firms participate more in carry trades and allocate less FX risk buffers than non-listed firms.

Presented at: Midwest Macro Fall 2022, Society for Economic Dynamics 2023

First version: November 2021

Previously circulated as "Carry Trades and Precautionary Saving: The Use of Proceeds from Foreign Currency Debt Issuance."

Liability Dollarization and Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices (with Junhyong Kim)

Accepted at Journal of International Economics

[working paper version]

Abstract: We explore the negative balance sheet effect of foreign currency borrowing on the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. Exploiting a large, unexpected depreciation episode in Korea in 1997, we show that firms with higher foreign currency debt experience balance sheet deterioration and face lower growth rates of net worth, sales, and markups. We then empirically document that sectors populated by firms with higher foreign currency debt exposure prior to the depreciation exhibit larger price increases. Building a heterogeneous-firm model with financial constraints, we quantify the role of foreign currency debt in explaining the exchange rate pass-through to prices and find that 10% to 44% of sectoral price changes during the depreciation episode can be explained by the balance sheet effect of foreign currency debt alone. We emphasize the role of strategic complementarity in amplifying sectoral price increases.

Presented at: Midwest Macro Fall 2019, Korea International Economic Association 2022 Winter Conference at SNU, ASSA Meeting 2023, Ohio State University, Yonsei University, University of Seoul, NBER East Asian Seminar on Economics 2023, Washington Area International Finance Symposium, 3rd WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance 2023, 4th Women in International Economics Conference, Johns Hopkins University - Economics Department, ASSA Meeting 2024, NBER International Finance and Macroeconomics Program Meeting Spring 2024, WE_ARE Virtual Seminar Series, University of Houston, Southern Economic Association 2024, Waseda University, Keio University, KER International Conference 2025

First version: August 2019

U.S. Liquid Government Liabilities and Emerging Market Capital Flows (with Charles Engel)

Accepted at Journal of International Economics, * First Author

[paper] [NBER WP] This version: March 2026

Abstract: We identify the liquidity channel through which Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) affect capital flows to emerging markets. Using weekly data on the Fed’s purchases and sales of long-term U.S. Treasury securities, we find that large purchases lead to a significant increase in capital flows to emerging markets, and that sales have the reverse effect. We then show that QE lowers, and QT raises, the convenience yield on U.S. Treasuries, measured by covered interest parity deviations, and that the induced changes in the convenience yield drive the capital flow responses. Our model based on liquidity rationalizes these findings: QE shifts publicly held government debt toward more liquid assets, providing investors a greater buffer against the risk of low consumption. Better insured through liquid asset holdings, investors are willing to increase illiquid investments, including lending to emerging markets.

Presented at: Central Bank of Brazil, Society for Economic Dynamics Winter Meeting 2024, RIDGE December Forum International Macro, CEBRA Annual Meeting 2025, World Congress of the Econometric Society, Midwest Macro Fall 2025, ASSA Meeting 2026

First version: May 2024

Working Papers

Are Exporters Naturally Hedged? Corporate Dollar Debt and Global Trade (with Junhyong Kim and Saiah Lee)

[paper] This version: January 2026

Abstract: We study how dollar-denominated debt and firm heterogeneity affect exchange rate pass-through to trade, using Korean firm-level balance sheet and customs transaction data. Export-intensive firms do not borrow more in foreign currency, suggesting natural hedging is not a key driver of the currency denomination of debt. Exploiting the 1997 depreciation, we find higher foreign currency debt exposure led to lower export quantity growth and higher price growth for smaller firms, with the opposite for very large firms. Liquidity shortages constrain smaller firms, while larger firms offset debt burdens by expanding exports. The financial channel remains relevant in recent years.

Presented at: UNIST, North American Summer Meeting 2024, KER International Conference 2024, Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in China 2024, IMIM virtual seminar, Korea University, Sogang University, 4th Virtual Workshop for International Macro and Sovereign Debt, IMF, Korea International Finance Association, Society for Economic Dynamics 2025, China International Conference in Finance 2025, World Congress of the Econometric Society, Dongguk University, 4th Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Markets at the Banco Centeral de Chile, Chung-Ang University, London International Macro Conference, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Hong Kong, Chinese University of Hong Kong - Shenzhen, Korea University (scheduled)

First version: June 2024

Previously circulated as "Corporate Dollar Debt and Global Trades: The Role of Firm Heterogeneity"

Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency? The Role of Exchange Rate Risk

[paper] [slides] This version: January 2026

Abstract: Borrowing in foreign currency often leads to currency mismatches on emerging economies’ balance sheets, causing financial instability. Nonetheless, emerging market governments borrow more in foreign currency, particularly when exchange rate volatility is higher. This paper develops a sovereign default model with risk-averse international lenders, where emerging economies bear the exchange rate risk due to the high foreign exchange risk premium on local currency debt. The model effectively captures the cost of borrowing in local and foreign currency and the currency composition of external public debt, suggesting a 0.35% welfare gain from exchange rate stabilization for emerging market sovereigns.

Presented at: KU Leuven Summer Event 2022, Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in China 2022 (AMES), Yonsei University, Society for Economic Dynamics 2022 (SED), Korea-America Economic Association, Midwest Macro Fall 2022, University of Maryland, North American Summer Meeting 2023, Sovereign Debt Workshop at the IMF, DebtCon8

First Version: November 2021

International Portfolio Choice with Infrequent Adjustment (with Yeonggyu Yun)

New version coming soon. [Apr 2022 ver.]

Abstract: This paper unravels the equity home bias puzzle by building a model in which an agent infrequently adjusts her portfolio holdings of home and foreign equities. With infrequent trading, an investor holds onto her portfolio for longer periods, causing allocations to drift away from their optimal levels, especially under high return volatility. This portfolio stickiness lowers demand for foreign equities, subject to high foreign exchange rate volatility. Using the Euro’s introduction as a natural experiment, we show that adopting the Euro reduced equity home bias, and the model quantitatively matches the observed differences within and outside the Euro area.

Presented at: North American Summer Meeting 2019 (NASMES 2019), Midwest Macro Fall 2019, Economics Graduate Student Conference 2019 in St.Louis (EGSC 2019), Western Economic Association International 2021 (Virtual, WEAI 2021)

First version: December 2018

Previously circulated as "Implications of Infrequent Portfolio Adjustment for International Portfolio Choices" [Apr 2022 ver.]

Selected Works In Progress

Firm Financing Over the Life Cycle (with Minjie Deng and Chang Liu)
Dollar Debt and Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets (with Minjie Deng, Junhyong Kim, and Chang Liu)
Exchange Rates and Input Sourcing: Substitution Within and Across Borders (with Charles Engel, Junhyong Kim, and Saiah Lee)

Pre-doctoral Publication:

"Geography of cross-border portfolio investments and ICT diffusion," International Review of Economics & Finance (2016)

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